Al-Qaeda in Iraq regaining strength
GOVERNMENT IS THE TARGET
More high-profile blasts likely in run-up to vote
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, November 22, 2009
BAGHDAD -- The Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq has rebounded in strength in recent months and appears to be launching a concerted effort to cripple the Iraqi government as U.S. troops withdraw, Iraqi and American officials say.
The group asserted responsibility for four powerful bombings that targeted five government buildings in Baghdad in August and October -- the deadliest attacks directed at the government in more than six years of war. Authorities say al-Qaeda in Iraq intends to carry out additional high-profile attacks in the months ahead and is attempting to regain its foothold in former strongholds just outside the capital.
The strategy represents a shift in tactics from the group's efforts to kindle the kind of sectarian violence that brought Iraq to the brink of anarchy in 2007. The group suffered major setbacks after the "surge" in U.S. troops to Iraq that year, but American and Iraqi officials say that al-Qaeda in Iraq has found more recent success by enlisting other groups in an effort aimed at undermining elections scheduled for January and the formation of a new government.
Although the group has lost many top leaders, funding sources and popular support, it stands to gain from a deeply split political establishment, growing Sunni resentment toward the Shiite-led government, disjointed Iraqi security agencies and the diminishing ability of U.S. forces to engage in combat operations in Iraq.
"They're still capable of conducting singular high-profile attacks," Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said.
What was once a foreign-led terrorist organization is now a mostly Iraqi network of small, roving cells that continue to rely on the flow of fighters and weapons smuggled through the Syrian border, albeit at a slower rate, U.S. and Iraqi officials say.
Syria denies role
Maj. Gen. Hussein Kamal, the Interior Ministry's chief of intelligence and investigations, said Iraqi officials suspect the Aug. 19 and Oct. 25 bombings, which targeted the Foreign, Justice and Finance ministries, among other entities, were planned at a secret meeting in Zabadani, a city in southwestern Syria, close to the Lebanese border. He said al-Qaeda in Iraq leaders met with former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party on July 30 to chart out a new strategy.
"They made a plan to carry out major joint operations in central Baghdad targeting important buildings," Kamal said in an interview.
The attacks killed more than 250 people and wounded more than 1,000. The four bombs were manufactured in Baghdad, not far from the targets, Kamal said. The two used in August were made with fertilizer and conventional explosives and were packed into water tanks. The ones in October included C-4 explosives and artillery shells, he said.
The blasts were deeply damaging to the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who just weeks earlier had trumpeted the readiness of his security forces to maintain order as most U.S. troops pulled out of Iraqi cities.
The government announced the arrest of former members of the Baath Party and accused Syria of harboring terrorist cells. Syrian officials have said they do not condone attacks on Iraqi soil.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq came to control large parts of the country between 2005 and 2008. The group is the largest within the Islamic State of Iraq, an umbrella organization that seeks to turn Iraq into an Islamic republic run by Sunnis.
The U.S. troop surge in 2007 and the creation of American-funded Sunni paramilitary groups left al-Qaeda in Iraq reeling, as scores of its leaders were killed or detained.
But after the provincial election in Iraq this year, al-Qaeda offered an olive branch to other Sunni extremist groups, issuing a message that even went as far as extending "a hand of forgiveness" to those who worked with the Americans.
Some groups responded favorably to the overture, but there is little evidence that al-Qaeda in Iraq's membership has swelled significantly, said Rita Katz, who runs the SITE Intelligence Group, a Bethesda-based organization that analyzes extremist organizations. It does not appear that Sunni paramilitary groups that once worked with the United States have rejoined the insurgency, even though many have been angered that the United States has handed responsibility for them to the Shiite-led government.
Change in strategy
U.S. and Iraqi officials blamed al-Qaeda in Iraq for major attacks targeting civilians in Baghdad and northern Iraq this year. The bombings did not unleash the kind of sectarian violence that followed similar attacks in 2006 and 2007, and officials and experts say that al-Qaeda in Iraq appears to be focusing its strikes on government targets.
"AQI has perhaps realized that in order to gain as wide a base of support as possible, the group must fight an enemy that can be more easily justified through an interpretation of Islamic law," Katz said, referring to the targeted government buildings, which al-Qaeda in Iraq considers extensions of the U.S. occupation. "While the group may still, in fact, be carrying out attacks on civilians, especially in Shia areas, the group does not take credit for these attacks for fear of losing popular support."
The Islamic State of Iraq this month issued another plea calling for Sunnis to rally around a common end goal, according to an online posting translated and analyzed by SITE.
U.S. officials said the recent bombings were a last-ditch attempt by a marginalized, weakened group to regain relevance.
"My own personal analysis is there are some dispersed groups trying to bond for some short-term common interest," said Col. Mark R. Stammer, a brigade commander in Anbar province, where recent attacks have been blamed on al-Qaeda in Iraq.
The leadership of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Qaeda in Iraq remains hazy. In April, the Iraqi government announced that it had arrested the presumed leader of the umbrella organization, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi.
Odierno said this week that there are probably two or three individuals who assume Baghdadi's identity but that the United States thinks the group's leader remains at large.
Iraqi and American officials worry about a rise in attacks in the run-up to the elections, scheduled for Jan. 18.
The weeks and months after the vote could be particularly critical because key security jobs could go unfilled indefinitely as elected officials divvy up ministries and major posts. The government was virtually paralyzed after the 2005 election amid squabbling over top jobs -- an impasse that coincided with an increase in violence.
Special correspondent Qais Mizher contributed to this report.
