Who will be the next Dutch prime minister?

Looking at the current polls, it seems to have become a showdown between four men: incumbent Jan Peter Balkenende, Labour challenger Job Cohen, right-wing liberal Mark Rutte and enfant terrible Geert Wilders. Their neck-and-neck race illustrates the fragmented political landscape of the Netherlands, where traditional parties no longer boast a loyal following.

One familiar face in the campaign is that of Jan Peter Balkenende, the leader of the Christian democratic CDA. Balkenende has been prime minister since 2002, leading three cabinets and two caretaker cabinets. Although none of his coalitions completed their four year term, he can yet again become prime minister. His conservative Christian democratic party has a strong electoral base and in the past he has proved pre-election polls wrong.

Last year, it seemed Balkenende, who is 54, was looking for a way out of Dutch politics when he offered himself as a candidate to become the first permanent European president. This honour went to Herman Van Rompuy of Belgium, however, closing a window of opportunity for a natural change of leadership within the CDA. The day after Balkenende's last government fell in February, the board of his party announced it wanted him to lead again in the resulting early election.

The party may not be done with him, but on June 9, the question will be what the voters want. In the polls, the CDA is now the third party, predicted to win as few as 22 seats in one survey. In a recent interview with public broadcaster NOS, Balkenende said he was still full of ambition. But when asked which party would become the biggest after the election, he was not all too confident. "I would very much like to continue," he said.

Labour leader Job Cohen served as a deputy minister at two different ministries in The Hague, but he is mainly known as the mayor of Amsterdam, where he worked from 2001 until he was asked to take over as party leader for the upcoming election. He even achieved international fame in 2004 for keeping the peace in the Dutch capital after the brutal murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh by a Muslim extremist. Time magazine then named him one of its 'European Heroes' and applauded him for his inclusive approach to immigrants.

"I find it very important that we have and maintain a society that includes rather than excludes people, a society where people do not judge each other, but give each other space - within the limits of the law," the 62-year-old recently told NRC Handelsblad.

It is this very attitude that makes him a hero to some and the scorn of others. It definitely pits him diametrically opposite Geert Wilders, the anti-Islam politician who has dominated much of the immigration debate in the past years. Looking at the most recent polls, however, Cohen now seems to be in a run-off for the highest office against right-wing liberal VVD leader Mark Rutte. Both Labour and VVD are predicted to garner around 30 seats in parliament. Cohen is favoured in prime minister preference polls, but those who like his moderate tone will not necessarily vote for his party.

"These elections are not about who has the highest X-factor to become prime minister," VVD leader Mark Rutte said in a speech to supporters last month. If it was, 43-year-old Rutte would be an unlikely candidate. Under his long contested leadership, the party continued its decline in the polls. Since he rose to the party’s highest position in 2006, he has been criticised for lacking leadership and running from incident to incident.

But as the campaign centres more and more on economic issues, Rutte's star is rising. He predicted an economic crisis as early as January 2008, when the ruling parties still said the Netherlands' sound economy wouldn't be hit too hard. Now that politicians across the board are acknowledging the need to cut about 30 billion in annual spending, Rutte is reaping the fruit of his earlier calls to clean up government spending.

The bread-and-butter issues, so far, make the campaign a traditional left-right clash from which both the right-wing VVD and social democrats Labour benefit. Two out of three mid-May polls say the VVD will become the biggest party in parliament for the first time ever, which would make Rutte - with or without X-factor - prime minister.

While the VVD and Labour are climbing in the polls, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom are not doing so well. Wilders (46) leapt to second place in the polls after the government was dissolved in February and the results of the municipal elections in March showed he could even become prime minister. But Wilders fares best when the national political debate is focused on immigration issues rather than public spending and problems within the eurozone. Meanwhile, he has recently come under fire within his own ranks for the first time since he founded his own party, after breaking with the VVD in 2004.

Has he peaked too soon, or will the remaining three weeks be enough to stir up a controversy that returns him to the campaign's centre stage? Wilders' populist, anti-Islam rhetoric is guaranteed to generate national and international media attention and figure prominently in his electoral programme. Wilders wants to halt all immigration from Muslim countries, ban the Koran and the burqa, and impose a tax on head scarves.

In March, at a party meeting in his hometown, Venlo, Wilders said, "I want to be the prime minister." It appears, however, that he has shelved that ambition for now. Since it is unlikely several other parties will be willing to form a coalition government with this firebrand, he has already announced he will support a -minority- government of VVD and CDA.

In the fragmented Dutch political landscape, forming a coalition will be the real challenge after the June parliamentary election. Because of the Netherlands’ system of proportional representation and its low electoral threshold, at least ten parties could obtain some of the 150 seats.There is no way one party can rule alone, but, on this occasion, forming a two or even three party majority appears more difficult than ever.